Hendricks County’s population growth has consistently been among the top three in Indiana, and by some measures, among the nation’s fifty fastest-growing counties. Every time a developer plans to address that growing population with a new subdivision or multi-family community, panic fills the chatter pages and races up and down the sidelines at youth sports events.
“How will our schools accommodate all the kids who are going to move in there?” “Do the schools even know this is happening?” “My kid’s school bus is already crowded, so how does that idiot superintendent think they can fit more kids?” I’m sure you’ve seen or heard plenty of similar claims.
First, relax. Your local school district usually has studied these plans long before the public hears about them, even though their school board and the superintendent have zero control over whether the project will be approved. That’s solely up to town or county officials, depending upon where the new project is located. Smart developers know one of the first questions those town or county officials will ask is “Have you discussed the impact of your proposal with the schools?” If they haven’t, they’ll be told to do so before they move to the next step in the process.
Most people dramatically overestimate the school-age population that’s likely to emerge from a new residential development. Nor is that growth something school districts simply guess at. Boards and administrators hire professional demographers to study their communities and provide remarkably accurate estimates of future enrollment. They examine factors you might not have considered.
For example, the sale price of a house offers insight into what ages of students it will produce. The more expensive the subdivision, the older the kids will be. Families often begin in small starter homes when their kids are just starting school. While those kids are growing, their parents are advancing in their careers. A subdivision of starter homes is likely to produce mainly small kids, while a development of half-million-dollar residences will produce a bigger share of high schoolers.
In Plainfield, our data consistently showed that we received an average of 0.6 students per housing unit (each home, half a double, apartment unit, etc.). If a developer planned a 200-home subdivision or 200-unit apartment community, we could comfortably assume we’d receive about 120 new students. Based on the average sale price or rent, we’d also have a pretty good idea of the likely age breakdown of those students.
Earlier, I mentioned that the school districts don’t get to decide whether new projects get approved. Put another way, schools lack the legal authority to stop a development they don’t want to see. That doesn’t prohibit them from sharing their opinion with the people who do get to make the decision –town or county leaders – but schools don’t get a vote. Often, residents opposed to additional housing will demand the schools do something to put a stop to it. The schools can’t.
That’s why it’s so important for school districts to develop healthy relationships with the other governmental bodies that serve their residents. School leaders also hear from other local officials about concerns. Some years ago, we heard many prospective buyers were passing up our community because neighboring districts had schools that looked newer, and prospective residents tend to equate newer buildings with better education. As a result, we invested in exterior upgrades that improved the first impressions created by our schools.